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What I obtained incorrect: Wanting again at my 2022 predictions for the fashionable information stack – Atlan


The place we began vs. the place we at the moment are within the information world

At the start of this yr, I made some daring predictions about the way forward for the fashionable information stack in 2022.

As a substitute of simply kicking off 2023 with a brand new set of predictions  —  which, let’s be actual, I’m nonetheless going to do  —  I needed to pause and look again on the final yr in information. What did we get proper? What didn’t fairly go as anticipated? What did we fully miss?

This time of yr, as social media is flooded with lofty predictions, it’s simple to assume that the folks behind them are all-knowing consultants. However actually, we’re simply folks. Individuals who have been buried neck-deep within the information world for years, sure, however nonetheless fallible.

That’s why this yr, as an alternative of simply doing this train internally, I’m opening it as much as the general public. 

Listed below are my reflections on six main traits from 2022  —  what I obtained proper and the place I went fully incorrect.

The decision: Largely true ✅ however progressing slower than anticipated ❌

TL;DR: We did see a variety of market consolidation across the “information mesh platform”, however implementation practices and tooling stack are farther behind the hype than we anticipated. Information mesh continues to be on my radar, although, and can keep as a key pattern for 2023.

The place we began

Right here’s what I stated at first of this yr:

In 2022, I feel we’ll see a ton of platforms rebrand and supply their companies because the ‘final information mesh platform’. However the factor is, the info mesh isn’t a platform or a service you can purchase off the shelf. It’s a design idea with some great ideas like distributed possession, domain-based design, information discoverability, and information product delivery requirements  —  all of that are price attempting to operationalize in your group.

So right here’s my recommendation: As information leaders, you will need to follow the primary ideas at a conceptual stage, fairly than purchase into the hype that you just’ll inevitably see out there quickly.

I wouldn’t be shocked if some groups (particularly smaller ones) can obtain the info mesh structure by way of a totally centralized information platform constructed on Snowflake and dbt, whereas others will leverage the identical ideas to consolidate their ‘information mesh’ throughout advanced multi-cloud environments.

(All snippets are from the Way forward for the Fashionable Information Stack in 2022 Report.)

The place we’re now

My prediction that corporations would model themselves across the information mesh completely occurred. We noticed this with Starburst, Databricks, Oracle, Google Cloud, Dremio, Confluent, Denodo, Soda, lakeFS, and K2 View, amongst others.

There has additionally been progress within the information mesh’s shift from thought to actuality. Zhamak Dehghani revealed a ebook with O’Reilly concerning the information mesh, and actual consumer tales are rising on the Information Mesh Studying Group.

The result’s two more and more fashionable theories of how you can implement the info mesh:

  • By way of crew buildings: Distributed domain-based information groups which are answerable for publishing information merchandise, supported by a central information platforms crew that gives instruments for the distributed groups
  • By way of “information as a product”: Information groups which are answerable for creating information merchandise  — i.e. pushing information governance to the “left”, nearer to the info producers fairly than shoppers.

Whereas this progress is notable, it in the end didn’t transfer the needle far sufficient, and the info mesh is about as obscure as a yr in the past. Information individuals are nonetheless craving readability and specificity. For instance, in Starburst’s convention on the info mesh, the commonest query within the chat was “How can we really implement the info mesh?”

Whereas I anticipated that, this yr, we as a group would transfer nearer to the “how you can implement the info mesh” dialogue, we’re nonetheless about the place we had been final yr. We’re nonetheless within the early phases as groups work out what implementing the info mesh actually means. Although extra folks have now purchased into the idea, there’s an actual lack of actual operational steerage about how you can obtain an information mesh in operation.

That is solely compounded by the truth that the mesh tooling stack continues to be untimely. Whereas there’s been a variety of rebranding, we nonetheless don’t have a best-in-class reference structure of how an information mesh could be achieved.

The decision: Largely true ✅ however slower than anticipated ❌

TL;DR: dbt Labs’ Semantics Layer launched as anticipated. This was an enormous step ahead for the metrics layer, however we’re nonetheless ready to see the complete affect on the way in which that information groups work with metrics. The metrics layer guarantees to stay a major pattern going into 2023.

The place we began

Right here’s what I stated at first of this yr:

I’m extraordinarily excited concerning the metrics layer lastly changing into a factor. Just a few months in the past, George Fraser from Fivetran had an unpopular opinion that all metrics shops will evolve into BI instruments. Whereas I don’t absolutely agree, I do consider {that a} metrics layer that isn’t tightly built-in with BI is unlikely to ever turn out to be commonplace.

Nonetheless, present BI instruments aren’t actually incentivized to combine an exterior metrics layer into their instruments… which makes this a hen and egg drawback. Standalone metrics layers will battle to encourage BI instruments to undertake their frameworks, and will likely be pressured to construct BI like Looker was pressured to a few years in the past.

For this reason I’m actually enthusiastic about dbt saying their foray into the metrics layer. dbt already has sufficient distribution to encourage at the least the fashionable BI instruments (e.g. Preset, Mode, Thoughtspot) to combine deeply into the dbt metrics API, which can create aggressive stress for the bigger BI gamers.

I additionally assume that metrics layers are so deeply intertwined with the transformation course of that intuitively this is smart. My prediction is that we’ll see metrics turn out to be a first-class citizen in additional transformation instruments in 2022.

The place we’re now

I put my cash on dbt Labs, fairly than BI instruments, because the chief of the metrics layer  —  and that turned out to be proper.

dbt Labs’ Semantic Layer launched (in public preview) as promised, together with integrations throughout the fashionable information stack from corporations like Hex, Mode, Thoughtspot, and Atlan (us!). This was an enormous step ahead for the fashionable information stack, and it’s positively paving the way in which for metrics to turn out to be a first-class citizen.

What we didn’t get proper was what got here subsequent. We thought that together with dbt’s Semantic Layer, the metrics layer could be rocket-launched into on a regular basis information life. In actuality, although, progress has been extra measured, and the metrics layer has gained much less traction than anticipated.

Partially, it is because the foundational know-how took longer than I anticipated to launch. In any case, the Semantic Layer was simply launched in October at dbt Coalesce.

It’s additionally as a result of altering the way in which that folks write metrics is laborious. Firms can’t simply flip a swap and transfer to a metric/semantic layer in a single day. The change administration course of is very large, and it’s extra probably that the swap to the metrics layer will take years, fairly than months.

The decision: Largely true ✅ but additionally beginning to head in a brand new course ❌

TL;DR: As anticipated, this area is beginning to consolidate with ETL and information ingestion. On the similar time, nonetheless, reverse ETL is now making an attempt to rebrand itself and increase its class.

The place we began

Right here’s what I stated at first of this yr:

I’m fairly enthusiastic about every little thing that’s fixing the ‘final mile’ drawback within the trendy information stack. We’re now speaking extra about how you can use information in each day operations than how you can warehouse it  —  that’s an unimaginable signal of how mature the basic constructing blocks of the info stack (warehousing, transformation, and many others) have turn out to be!

What I’m not so certain about is whether or not reverse ETL needs to be its personal area or simply be mixed with an information ingestion software, given how comparable the basic capabilities of piping information out and in are. Gamers like Hevo Information have already began providing each ingestion and reverse ETL companies in the identical product, and I consider that we would see extra consolidation (or deeper go-to-market partnerships) within the area quickly.

The place we’re now

My huge prediction was that we’d see extra consolidation on this area, and that positively occurred as anticipated. Most notably, the info ingestion firm Airbyte acquired Grouparoo, an open-source reverse ETL product.

In the meantime, different corporations cemented their foothold in reverse ETL with launches like Hevo Information’s Hevo Activate (which added reverse ETL to the corporate’s present ETL capabilities) and Rudderstack’s Reverse ETL (a rebranded model of its earlier Warehouse Actions product line).

Nonetheless, fairly than trending towards consolidation, among the fundamental gamers in reverse ETL have targeted on redefining and increasing their very own class this yr. The newest buzzword is “information activation”, a brand new tackle the “buyer information platform” (CDP) class, pushed by corporations like Hightouch and Rudderstack.

Right here’s their broad argument  —  in a world the place information is saved in a central information platform, why do we want standalone CDPs? As a substitute, we may simply “activate” information from the warehouse to deal with conventional CDP features like sending customized emails.

In brief, they’ve shifted from speaking about “pushing information” to truly driving buyer use circumstances with information. These corporations nonetheless discuss reverse ETL, however it’s now a function inside their bigger information activation platform, fairly than their fundamental descriptor. (Notably, Census has resisted this pattern, sticking with the reverse ETL class throughout its web site.)

The decision: Largely true

TL;DR: This class continued to blow up with buy-in from analysts and corporations alike. Whereas there’s not one dominant winner but, the area is beginning to attract a transparent line between conventional information catalogs and trendy catalogs (e.g. energetic metadata platforms, information catalogs for DataOps, and many others).

The place we began

Right here’s what we stated at first of this yr:

The information world will all the time be numerous, and that range of individuals and instruments will all the time result in chaos. I’m in all probability biased, provided that I’ve devoted my life to constructing an organization within the metadata area. However I really consider that the important thing to bringing order to the chaos that’s the trendy information stack lies in how we are able to use and leverage metadata to create the fashionable information expertise.

Gartner summarized the way forward for this class in a single sentence: ‘The stand-alone metadata administration platform will likely be refocused from augmented information catalogs to a metadata ‘wherever’ orchestration platform.’

The place information catalogs within the 2.0 technology had been passive and siloed, the three.0 technology is constructed on the precept that context must be accessible wherever and each time customers want it. As a substitute of forcing customers to go to a separate software, third-gen catalogs will leverage metadata to enhance present instruments like Looker, dbt, and Slack, lastly making the dream of an clever information administration system a actuality.

Whereas there’s been a ton of exercise and funding within the area in 2021, I’m fairly certain we’ll see the rise of a dominant and actually third-gen information catalog (aka an energetic metadata platform) in 2022.

The place we’re now

Provided that that is my area, I’m not shocked that this prediction was pretty correct. What I used to be shocked by, although, was how this area outperformed even my wildest expectations.

Energetic metadata and third-gen catalogs blew up even sooner than I anticipated. In an enormous shift from final yr, when only some folks had been speaking about it, tons of corporations from throughout the info ecosystem at the moment are competing to assert this class. (Take, for instance, Hevo Information and Castor’s adoption of the “Information Catalog 3.0” language.) Just a few have the tech to again up their speak. However just like the early days of the info mesh, when consultants and newbies alike appeared equally knowledgable in an area that was nonetheless being outlined, others don’t.

A part of what made the area explode this yr is how analysts latched onto and amplified this concept of contemporary metadata and information catalogs.

After its new Market Information for Energetic Metadata in 2021, Gartner appears to have gone all in energetic metadata. At its convention this yr, energetic metadata popped up as one of many key themes in Gartner’s keynotes, in addition to in what appeared like half of the week’s talks throughout totally different matters and classes.

G2 launched a brand new “Energetic Metadata Administration” class in the midst of the yr, marking a “new technology of metadata”. They even referred to as this the “third part of…information catalogs”, consistent with this new “third-generation” language.

Equally, Forrester scrapped its Wave report on “Machine Studying Information Catalogs” to make method for “Enterprise Information Catalogs for DataOps”, marking a serious shift of their thought of what a profitable information catalog ought to seem like. As a part of this, Forrester upended their Wave rankings, shifting the entire earlier Leaders to the underside or center tiers  —  a serious signal that the market is beginning to separate trendy catalogs (e.g. energetic metadata platforms, information catalogs for DataOps, and many others.) from conventional information catalogs.

The decision: Didn’t come true

TL;DR: As a lot as I want this had come true, we made far much less progress on this pattern than I anticipated. Twelve months later, we’re just about the place we began.

The place we began

Right here’s what we stated at first of the yr:

Of all of the hyped traits in 2021, that is the one I’m most bullish on. I consider that within the subsequent decade, information groups will emerge as probably the most vital groups within the group cloth, powering the fashionable, data-driven corporations on the forefront of the economic system.

Nonetheless, the truth is that information groups in the present day are caught in a service entice, and solely 27% of their information initiatives are profitable. I consider the important thing to fixing this lies within the idea of the ‘information product’ mindset, the place information groups give attention to constructing reusable, reproducible belongings for the remainder of the crew. This may imply investing in consumer analysis, scalability, information product delivery requirements, documentation, and extra.

The place we at the moment are

Wanting again on this one hurts. Of all my predictions, this one not coming true (but? 🤞) makes me extremely unhappy.

Regardless of the speak, we’re nonetheless so removed from the truth of knowledge groups working as product groups. Whereas information tech has matured quite a bit this yr, we haven’t progressed a lot farther than we had been final yr on the human facet of knowledge. There simply hasn’t been a lot progress on how information groups basically function  —  their tradition, processes, and many others.

The decision: Largely true

TL;DR: As predicted, this area continued to increase and fragment itself this yr. The place it would go subsequent yr, although, and whether or not it would merge with adjoining classes continues to be an open query.

The place we began

Right here’s what we stated at first of this yr:

I consider that previously two years, information groups have realized that tooling to enhance productiveness just isn’t a good-to-have however vital. In any case, information professionals are probably the most sought-after hires you’ll ever make, so that they shouldn’t be losing their time on troubleshooting pipelines.

So will information observability be a key a part of the fashionable information stack sooner or later? Completely. However will information observability live on as its personal class or will or not it’s merged right into a broader class (like energetic metadata or information reliability)? That is what I’m not so certain about.

Ideally, if in case you have all of your metadata in a single open platform, it’s best to be capable to leverage it for quite a lot of use circumstances (like information cataloging, observability, lineage and extra). I wrote about that concept final yr in my article on the metadata lake.

That being stated, in the present day, there’s a ton of innovation that these areas want independently. My sense is that we’ll proceed to see fragmentation in 2022 earlier than we see consolidation within the years to come back.

The place we’re now

The massive prediction was that this area would proceed to develop, however in a fragmented fairly than consolidated vogue  —  and that actually occurred.

Information observability has held its personal and continued to develop in 2022. The variety of gamers on this area has simply continued to develop, with present corporations getting greater, new corporations changing into mainstream, and new instruments launching each month.

For instance, in firm information, there have been some main Collection Ds (Monte Carlo with $135M, Unravel with $50M) and Collection Bs (Edge Delta with $63M, and Manta with $35M) on this area.

As for tooling, Acceldata open-sourced its platform, Kensu launched an information observability answer, AWS launched observability options into Amazon Glue 4.0, and Entanglement spun out one other firm targeted on observability.

And within the thought management area, each Monte Carlo and Kensu revealed main books with O’Reilly about information observability.

To make issues extra difficult, many industry-adjacent or early-stage corporations have additionally been increasing and cement their position on this area. For instance, after beginning within the information high quality area, Soda is now a serious participant in information observability. Equally, Acceldata began in logs observability however now manufacturers itself as “Information Observability for the Fashionable Information Stack”. Metaplane and Bigeye have additionally been rising in prominence since their launch and Collection B, respectively, in 2021.

Like final yr, I’m nonetheless unsure the place information observability is heading — in the direction of independence or a merge with information reliability, energetic metadata, or another class. However at a excessive stage, it appears that evidently it’s shifting nearer to information high quality, with a give attention to guaranteeing high-quality information, fairly than energetic metadata.

As we shut out December 2022, it’s superb to see how a lot the info world has modified.

It was simply 9 months in the past in March that Information Council occurred, the place we debated the heck out of the info world. We put out all the recent takes on our tech, group, vibe, and future  —  as a result of we may. We had been in progress mode, in search of the subsequent new factor and vying for a piece of the seemingly infinite information pie.

Now we’re in a distinct world, one among recession and layoffs and funds cuts. We’re shifting from progress mode to effectivity mode.

Don’t get me incorrect  —  we’re nonetheless within the golden age of knowledge. Just some weeks in the past, Snowflake introduced report income and 67% year-over-year progress.

However as information leaders, we’re going through new challenges on this golden age of knowledge. As most corporations begin speaking about effectivity, how can we consider using information to leverage essentially the most effectivity in our work? What can information groups do to turn out to be essentially the most precious useful resource of their organizations?

I’m nonetheless attempting to puzzle out how this may have an effect on the fashionable information stack, and I can’t wait to share my ideas quickly. However the one factor I’m certain about is that 2023 will likely be a yr to recollect within the information world.


We’ll be releasing our annual 2023 Way forward for the Fashionable Information Stack report on January 10. Signal as much as get it delivered proper to your inbox.


This weblog was initially revealed on In the direction of Information Science.

Header picture: Picture by Mike Kononov on Unsplash





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