Within the wake of its brutal warfare in Ukraine, as of Sept. 5, Russia’s pure fuel exports had fallen to 21 billion cubic meters, two-thirds decrease than final 12 months and 6 occasions decrease than in 2021.
The EU has responded by upping its renewable vitality technique whereas looking for different sources to assist meet its pure fuel calls for within the meantime. Azerbaijan (part of the previous Soviet Union) is a type of international locations, signing a new deal for doubling fuel exports to Europe by 2027.
Nevertheless, growing vitality imports from petro-states equivalent to Azerbaijan won’t hasten Europe’s renewable vitality transition; it is going to solely complicate it.
Azerbaijan is just not the primary petro-state the place undemocratic and aggressive governments are propped because of their oil and fuel exports; Saudi Arabia and Iran are the best-known examples. However Azerbaijan’s scenario, mendacity on the heart of the Eurasian heartland, and its proximity to the warfare in Ukraine are distinctive. Worldwide assist for international locations equivalent to Azerbaijan engaged in “petro-aggression” has implications for the broader world shift to renewable vitality, and it’s value asking what multinational corporations can, and may, do in response.
Of pipelines and battle
If the world has rejected normalizing Russia’s aggression, why the double normal with Azerbaijan? As an American of Armenian descent, I’ve adopted the lengthy historical past of violence within the South Caucasus between Azerbaijan and Armenia, most just lately ensuing within the “Second Karabakh Warfare” and hundreds of casualties on each side. As of September, Azerbaijan has forcibly eliminated and ethnically cleansed 100,000 Armenians from the area often called Nagorno-Karabakh.
Shortly after President Ilhan Aliyev claimed victory in Karabakh, Turkey, which additionally has a historical past of genocide and violence in opposition to Armenia, Azerbaijan signed a brand new fuel pipeline deal connecting the Turkish metropolis of Igdir with Nakchivan, a area managed by Azerbaijan, simply west of Karabakh and Armenia. The brand new pipeline will be part of different pipelines connecting the Caspian Sea oil and fuel fields with the Mediterranean.
Anna Ohanyan, a professor of political science and worldwide relations at Stonehill Faculty, wrote just lately in International Coverage that Azerbaijan seemingly seeks to obtain an extraterritorial hall that will enable it to steadily take management of Armenian land and circumvent geopolitical sanctions for ignoring internationally acknowledged borders.
False energy and petro-aggression
Azerbaijan’s rise as an vitality exporter is already giving it “false geopolitical energy.” The nation’s fossil sources are shortly diminishing as its personal home calls for improve, limiting its export provides even because it tries to execute offers with Europe and leverage them to forestall European nations from thwarting its ambitions in Armenia.
“It is rather unlikely that Azerbaijan will be capable to meet its rising export calls for to the EU,” wrote analysts at The Economist Intelligence Unit. Azerbaijan’s oil and fuel reserves might be depleted by 2030, in response to a report in Third World Quarterly. “Azerbaijan’s leverage is actually a puzzle to me and is massively overestimated,” Ohanyan advised me. “Azerbaijan signed an settlement with Russia earlier than Russia invaded Ukraine for vitality cooperation; Azerbaijan is unable to fulfill its personal calls for and guarantees to Europe and because of this is principally shopping for fuel from Russia after which promoting it to Europe.”
Azeri-style belligerence is typically often called petro-aggression: when a rustic’s fossil gasoline riches and supposed financial clout embolden it to be extra aggressive, concentrating on neighboring states to increase its geopolitical energy. “On this scenario, … [Azerbaijan] is just not solely an authoritarian state, which is already a threat issue, however it’s a petro-state,” stated Ohanyan. “Petro-states behave fully in a different way and they’re extra more likely to begin wars.”
Absolutely 50 % of Azerbaijan’s state funds and 90 % of its export income comes from oil and fuel output, showcasing simply how intertwined fossil fuels are with the nation’s future.
The shift to renewables must speed up
Because the world shifts to extra renewable vitality, international locations equivalent to Azerbaijan or Russia, which closely depend on fossil gasoline exports for his or her geopolitical energy, will face new limits as demand for fuel and oil decreases. Renewable vitality is a power perform for democracy and democratic practices because it decentralizes energy and privatizes financial authority, however solely when met with authorities assist. “[President Aliyev] going to withstand the inexperienced transition as a result of if carried out, it could diversify Azerbaijan’s economic system and convey new gamers into it together with decentralizing energy, that are all issues President Aliyev has been working in opposition to,” stated Ohanyan.
Even authoritarians equivalent to Aliyev can’t cease this transition: Azerbaijan just lately signed agreements with the Abu Dhabi Future Power Firm for photo voltaic and wind initiatives totaling 1 GW, and the nation has a acknowledged objective to succeed in carbon neutrality by 2050.
Name to motion
The battle within the South Caucasus issues to massive multinational companies and their shift to a greener future, and they need to become involved, stated Ohanyan: “I believe corporations want to speculate and begin listening to how conflicts are resolved. Conflicts needs to be resolved by negotiation and firms want to talk a lot louder in opposition to using power.”
Multinationals, she added, “are a beneficiary of a peaceable transition to a inexperienced economic system.” Slightly than counting on fossil gasoline provides from petro-states, multinational companies can speed up their investments within the vitality transition and scale back the necessity for such fossil-fuel imports. Applications such because the REPowerEU, launched in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, are an instance of promising motion; however for now, the concentrate on Russia has solely shifted fossil-fueled energy grabs elsewhere.
