New Zealand EV Market Crash: 5% Penetration in January 2024

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January delivered an EV market crash in plug-in electrical automobile gross sales in New Zealand, to their lowest stage in a number of years. After the monster gross sales data of December 2023, the removing of the EV tax incentive, and the double whammy of the Highway Person Cost (RUC), it was to be anticipated. Nevertheless, the scale of the autumn was nonetheless a shock. Gross sales of luxurious EVs don’t seem like affected (they didn’t obtain any incentives beneath the earlier authorities), and Toyota appears to have entered the BEV market — for the primary time making the highest ten. Quelle shock! BMW was the highest promoting model!

Stalking on the NZ EV Fb web page reveals a sanguine strategy from the New Zealand electrical automobile neighborhood — “look ahead to a couple of months,” “test the quarterly information,” and “don’t overlook that this 12 months’s boats stuffed with BYDs and Tesla’s haven’t arrived but.” February and March information shall be an attention-grabbing learn — keep tuned. My “analysis” additionally revealed that there are nonetheless many chargers being put in all through the islands of the lengthy white cloud. So, clearly, EV uptake is predicted to proceed, although presumably at a slower tempo. The typical of the final three months is 30%, based on James at EVDB.

Solely 244 new battery electrical autos have been registered in New Zealand in January 2024 (after 4,455 have been registered in December 2023). The low-cost fashions appeared to have the best discount. The chief of the pack in January (supplanting the MG4) was the Seal, with 31 models, adopted by the Tesla Mannequin Y (25 models) after which third place going to the Toyota BZ4X (23 models).

Of the over 8,000 mild autos offered in January, BEVs comprised round 3%, PHEVs took 2.5% of the market, and a pair of,434 plug-less hybrids have been offered for 30% market share (remaining just about steady from December). In the meantime, 4,340 petrol-powered vehicles have been offered (virtually 4 occasions what have been offered in December 2023) for a 54% share of the market, and double the variety of diesels have been offered than in December. Ford scored properly with the Everest (304 gross sales) and the Transit (20 gross sales).

The highest ten finest promoting battery electrical autos offered in New Zealand in January 2024 have been:

1. BYD Seal (31 gross sales, down from 159 final month)
2. Tesla Mannequin Y (25 gross sales, down from 356 final month)
3. Toyota BZ4X (23 gross sales)
4. Subaru Solterra (21 gross sales)
5. Audi e-tron (14 gross sales)
6. BMW 1 (13 gross sales)
7. BMW 4 (12 gross sales)
8. MG4 (12 gross sales, down from 622 final month)
9. BMW X 1 (9 gross sales)
10. Ford Mustang Mach-E (9 gross sales)

Particular commendation to the Kia EV9, which had 8 gross sales and simply missed the highest 10. After all, if we included second-hand imports, the Nissan LEAF can be prime of the desk with 34 models offered.

Clearly, eradicating the “ute tax” has hit the decrease price vehicles essentially the most – three BMWs and an Audi have taken slots from so referred to as reasonably priced fashions on the charts this month. The Koreans are additionally having a sluggish month. Who would have thought we’d see a Toyota mannequin within the prime ten for BEVs (or Subaru)? Though, I’ve seen the BZ4X promoting properly in Europe and getting within the prime 20 in some nations. I want Toyota properly and hope they quickly be part of the EV get together with full enthusiasm. It might be nice if they may transition their dealerships and clients from HEV to BEV. Time will inform.

As was to be anticipated, there was a substantial amount of commentary on the NZ EV Fb web page about Toyota’s inclusion. Some discovered it past perception. Others thought that it was primarily pushed by model loyalty and Toyota’s status for reliability. My concern can be about how lengthy model loyalty will final if Toyota can’t compete with different manufacturers — for worth — primarily BYD and Tesla. Hopefully, cross procuring will happen. I’m positive there shall be a number of conversations across the chargers. Will Toyota be part of the opposite manufacturers in accessing Tesla’s tremendous charging community? Will we proceed to react like Pavlov’s canines?

Some commentators level to Toyota’s very profitable advertising campaigns, loyal fan base, and fleet patrons. Will Toyota cease preferencing HEVs over BEVs? When will it have the ability to let go of hydrogen? Some level out that Toyota’s (and Subaru’s) e-TNGA platform is sort of new and must be street confirmed. A lot in order that one inquisitive EV shopper took the BZ4X for a drive and concluded that it felt like driving a first-generation EV, boring and lacking lots of options that you’d count on from a contemporary electrical automobile.

For an extended overview see right here:

Maybe one of the best remark was: time to cease sneering at Toyota. Sure, they’re late. Whereas what they’re providing is inferior to a Tesla or as low cost as a BYD, folks belief the Toyota model. The extra EVs on the street, the higher. Hear, hear I say.

The highest ten promoting plug-in hybrids in January 2024 (PHEVs) have been:

1. Porsche Cayenne (24 gross sales)
2. Mitsubishi Eclipse Cross (18, down from 249 final month)
3. Volkswagen Tuareg (14)
4. Mini Countryman (14), down from 16 final month
5. Land Rover Defender (13)
6. Mitsubishi Outlander (10) down from 320 final month
7. BMW X 5 (9)
8. Land Rover, Rover Sport (8)
9. Lexus NX (8)
10. Audi Q5 (7)

All collectively, 202 PHEVs offered in January 2024. Placing this chart collectively was a bizarre expertise because of the prevalence of luxurious autos. I couldn’t escape the query: Will PHEVs survive with out the “ute tax”? Provided that there aren’t any comparable BEV variations coming south to NZ, I count on.

The Highway Person Cost (RUC) will kick in on April 1st and add a price of roughly $76 per 1000 km for the EV driver. Feels like lots, till you take a look at the price of petrol at $3 a litre. Cash leaves your pockets and goes to Saudi at an astonishing fee – it’s magic! James at EVDB tells us that beneath the RUC, “ large, inefficient combustion autos can pay essentially the most. Though RUCs on EVs will be seen as a disincentive to go full EV, there may be some incentive within the system to decide on an environment friendly automobile over a giant fuel guzzler.”

“What’s the heaviest EV in NZ? Mercedes-Benz EQS 450 SUV — a 7-seater with a 108 kWh battery, and an elephantine kerb weight of two,918 kg (a minimum of based on the brochure). In 2024, the median value of a brand new EV in NZ is $79,990. Issues are shifting in the precise path. The entry-level value in NZ has dropped considerably (to round $50,000).”

Presumably essentially the most weird response to the RUC is individuals who have purchased a PHEV due to the tax incentives who are actually making an attempt to take away {the electrical} enter in order to not must pay up. Why did they purchase a PHEV within the first place? In the event that they used it as a PHEV, they’d save loads sufficient to cowl the RUC.

The New Yr will see extra fashions coming to New Zealand, and because the mud settles, we might quickly return to the 30% penetration achieved all through most of 2023. In 2024, count on to see the Zeekr, the Nissan Ariya, the Porsche Macan, the BYD Sea Lion, and the Polestar 4 enter the market. Regardless of the latest blip, the long run seems to be vivid, and electrical.

Picture by Partha Narasimhan on Unsplash