Latin American EV Gross sales Report, Half 2: The Promising Center (Mexico, Panama, Brazil, Puerto Rico)

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After the primary a part of our report (which, admittedly, was a bit underwhelming), we’re lastly attending to the nations the place EVs are transferring quick!

In case you want to learn the primary a part of this report, you could find it right here: Latin America 2023 EV Gross sales Report, Half 1: The Laggards (Argentina, Perú, Ecuador, Chile, Dominican Republic).

With no time to lose, let’s begin!

#7. Panama (1.2% plug-in market share)

48,919 autos have been offered in Panama throughout 2023, 434 of which have been BEVs (0.9%) and 148 of which have been PHEVs (0.3%), for a complete of 1.2% market share.

Similar to Chile, Panama is a rich nation with entry to reasonably priced, clear electrical energy, and even shorter distances. However, not like in Chile, Panama’s authorities offered Regulation 295 for electrical mobility in January 2023, selling the acquisition of EVs and providing reductions and advantages for EV house owners. In consequence, BEV gross sales elevated by 170% 12 months on 12 months, making it the primary nation on our record to surpass 1% plug-in market share. It stays to be seen what is going to are available in 2024, but when the expansion pattern continues, Panama may develop into a really attention-grabbing market to observe:

PHEV gross sales in earlier years couldn’t be discovered, so it was not doable to calculate PHEV gross sales development for 2023. Probably the most offered EVs within the nation have been the BMW iX (79 models) and the BYD Yuan/Atto 3 (45 models).

#6. Mexico (1.3% plug-in market share)

So, a little bit of a confession right here: Mexico’s report isn’t for the entire 2023, however just for the primary eleven months. The report for December will solely come out in March, so it was both this or ready one other month.

I really feel form of conflicted right here: Mexico, the second largest automotive market in Latin America, has had a spectacular efficiency 12 months after 12 months, with 85% EV development in 2021, 118% development in 2022, and 101% development in 2023. I’ve already misplaced rely of the variety of EV factories going up within the nation, as Nuevo León turns into the brand new hub for batteries and electrical parts. And, moreover, the arrival of Chinese language manufacturers allied with native firms has turned the market into one of the aggressive (EV-wise) within the area. By all metrics, Mexico is crushing it …

… and but, the area is transferring so quick that it barely reveals up. Brazil’s efficiency in late 2023 was so absurd that it makes Mexico’s development appear lackluster. I imply, that is excellent news, however I form of really feel dangerous for Mexico.

In any case, 11,782 BEVs and 5,123 PHEVs have been offered in Mexico within the first 11 months of 2023, comprising 0.9% and 0.4% of the 1,315,569 gentle and heavy autos offered within the nation in that very same interval, respectively. In case you keep in mind our report about H1 2023, Mexico’s market share stood at 1% again then (0.75% BEV), which signifies that gross sales grew fairly a bit within the second half of the 12 months. And, certainly, that’s seen after we take a look at them:

Almost all the development has come from pure electrical autos. BEV gross sales grew 168% 12 months on 12 months, whereas PHEVs solely grew by 27%:

2024 must be attention-grabbing. SEV, the native model promoting Mexico’s least expensive electrical automotive, appears to be closely investing in enlargement all through the nation, whereas BYD, GWM, and extra just lately Zeekr are additionally touchdown there. Costs are aggressive, and if the pattern downwards continues, market share may improve dramatically. That is the primary market through which I even have excessive hopes for this 12 months.

It’s value mentioning that 106,180 electrical autos have been produced in Mexico throughout 2023, principally the Ford Mustang Mach-E, which amounted to greater than 90% of that quantity. No data could possibly be discovered on gross sales per mannequin.

#5. Brazil (2.4% plug-in market share) 

And we get to the star of 2023!

An outline of this market was already offered in a selected article concerning Brazil’s 700% development YoY, however, in abstract, Brazil’s BEV gross sales had lengthy been comparatively stagnant, solely PHEVs having important development, till BYD introduced its manufacturing unit in Camaçari and the arrival of the BYD Dolphin at $30,000. Abruptly, different manufacturers needed to decrease their costs, competitors intensified, and each the BEV and the PHEV market skilled unreal development, growing by sixfold in a 12 months.

There have been fears that this superb feat was merely pulling up demand due to the rising import tax in EVs (that may go from 0 to 10% in January 2024), not not like we simply noticed in Germany. However the excellent news is: January numbers are already right here, and this wasn’t the case! Yr on 12 months, plug-in car gross sales grew by an incredible 246% (to eight,267 models) final month! Which means plug-in market share in Brazil stood at an incredible 5.5% in January 2024!

Traditionally, it had been principally PHEVs that pulled up EV gross sales in Brazil, however that modified in August 2023, and despite the fact that PHEVs proceed rising, it’s now BEVs that do a lot of the lifting: 

Market share clever, Brazil has proven constant development since BYD’s arrival, ending 2023 with 4.8% EV market share (2.5% BEV) and beginning 2024 with 5.5% share (2.9% BEV). Which means, so far as 2024 goes, Brazil is already a part of the rostrum:

At this level, even sustaining over 5% EV market share can be an enormous improve in contrast with 2023, but when EV gross sales continue to grow 12 months on 12 months, Brazil may simply find yourself being second within the area, solely behind Costa Rica.

Mannequin-wise, the Chinese language have taken over, with 8 out of 10 fashions being from that nation (and that’s counting Volvo as European):

One thing necessary to remember is that, collectively, Mexico and Brazil account for some 70% of auto gross sales in Latin America, that means that no matter occurs in these two markets is way extra necessary than what occurs outdoors of them.

#4. Puerto Rico (2.8% plug-in car gross sales) 

We end the second a part of our report with Puerto Rico. Although not technically a rustic, it’s nonetheless part of Latin America.

As with many different small nations, data is tough to seek out, however in keeping with native media, Puerto Rico offered 3,674 plug-in autos on the island, 2.8% of the 128,531 whole car gross sales within the nation. No extra particulars are provided (save for the truth that this quantity “doesn’t embody Teslas”, so the entire must be even larger), however this places Puerto Rico forward of a lot of the area — although, nonetheless far behind the US mainland.

In any case, Puerto Rico has a really excessive revenue in contrast with the area, and it’s not a really huge island, so I’d anticipate EVs to be extra profitable than they’re.  

Keep tuned for the third a part of this report, the place we are going to discuss in regards to the market leaders!