At SubOptic 2023, my colleague Tim Stronge and I introduced again the Telecom Mythbusters to check a brand new collection of myths.
I already lined my first two myths from our presentation: the cable lifespan delusion and the 99% delusion.
My third and remaining delusion—the exponential progress delusion—relies upon a quote that I discovered.
“The best shortcoming of the human race is our lack of ability to know the exponential perform.” –Albert Allen Bartlett
The Supply of This Fantasy
Al Bartlett, a professor on the College of Colorado, is thought for delivering an hour-long lecture known as “Arithmetic, Inhabitants, and Vitality: Sustainability 101” a whopping 1,792 occasions.
The main target of this lecture was on exponential progress and the impression on inhabitants progress and vitality consumption.
What Is Exponential Development?
As you’ll see within the slide beneath, exponential progress happens when a amount will increase over time in proportion to its present worth. It’s typically seen by way of share progress or as doubling time.
The chart plots exponential progress because the aqua-colored line and linear progress because the darkish blue line.
Within the linear progress sequence, the y-values enhance by an increment of three every interval. Within the exponential progress sequence, the y-values are multiplied by three over every interval.
You’ll be able to see a a lot larger progress fee taking place with exponential progress.
Why Is Exponential Development Onerous To Grasp?
Dr. Bartlett talked about how laborious it’s to know exponential progress in his lecture, utilizing an instance with micro organism.
Dr. Bartlett’s instance—illustrated above—offered the next assumptions.
There’s a jar with micro organism in it, doubling each minute. At 11:00 a.m. the jar has one bacterium, and 12:00 p.m. the jar is full.
Dr. Bartlett would then ask the viewers two easy questions:
- When is the jar half full?
- How full is the jar at 11:55 a.m.?
The primary reply is fairly apparent. We all know that the jar is doubling each minute, so it have to be 50% full at 11:59 a.m
The second half—how full the jar is at 11:55 a.m.—was Dr. Bartlett’s primary query for the viewers. And the reply is 3%.
Surprising, proper? 5 minutes till the jar is completely full, it’s solely at 3%.
Let’s Check Ourselves—With a Submarine Cable
Tim Stronge and I tackled this delusion and 5 others throughout our presentation at SubOptic 2023. Obtain our slides for the total breakdown.
