EVs At 26.3% Share In France — Peugeot e-208 Main

Join each day information updates from CleanTechnica on e-mail. Or observe us on Google Information!

February noticed plugin EVs at 26.3% share in France, up from 23.8% share, 12 months on 12 months. Full electrical quantity grew 32% YoY, and plugin hybrid quantity grew 12%. February’s general auto quantity was 142,598 items, up 13% YoY, although nonetheless effectively under 2017–2019 norms (~190,000). The Peugeot e-208 was as soon as once more the perfect promoting full electrical car.

February noticed mixed plugin EVs at 26.3% share in France, consisting of 18.1% full battery electrics (BEVs), and 8.2% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). These examine with YoY figures of 23.8% mixed, with 15.5% BEV, and 8.3% PHEV.

PHEVs have been on a plateau for the previous 3 years, hovering near 9% (+/- 1%) of the market. BEVs have continued to develop slowly and steadily for years. 2019 noticed a full 12 months BEV share of 1.9%, adopted by 6.7% in 2020, 9.8% (2021), 13.3% (2022), and 16.8% final 12 months (2023). With some incentives nonetheless in place (albeit thinning), 2024 seems to be to be one other 12 months of BEV development, with 20% full 12 months BEV share being potential.

That is regular progress, however not quick sufficient to fulfill medium-term targets. At this fee of roughly 3.5% achieve in BEV share every year, it can take till the tip of 2034 for BEVs to seize 50% of the French auto market. Contemplating that the aim is to get near 100% BEV gross sales by 2035, that is clearly insufficient.

The issue is that BEV pricing remains to be very costly for most individuals. Proper now, in France’s highest quantity auto segments, small and compact, just like the Peugeot 208, Fiat 500, and Opel Corsa, BEVs are priced far above combustion options. The entry combustion Peugeot 208 is listed at 19,350€ whereas the entry e-208 is 34,100€ — that’s 14,750€ (57%) dearer.

Why is a BEV a lot dearer? The widespread expectation was that — as a result of manufacturing prices decline as new applied sciences mature — costs of BEVs ought to by now be not very completely different from combustion counterparts, and transferring in direction of being inexpensive than combustion, over time. These anticipated value declines have certainly occurred with the important thing new applied sciences of BEVs — most significantly batteries, and likewise motors and energy electronics.

Automotive LFP cells now value 44€/kWh to make for the big suppliers in China (CATL, BYD, and many others), and they’re working at very slim revenue margins, and competing with one another on pricing. Which means that the 50 kWh battery packs of small BEVs like the perfect promoting Peugeot e-208 ought to value not way more than 3,000€. Permitting a beneficiant 2,500€ for motor and energy electronics, and saving a minimum of 2,000€ from the absent ICE, emissions remedy, ancillaries, and transmission, the BEV value premium ought to solely be 3,500€ at most, on this class of auto. That is conservative.  BEV producers in China are already competing head-on with ICE on value, even in segments priced effectively below 20,000€, utilizing part provides that are internationally traded.

As I identified in my latest Germany report “The [Dacia] Spring’s pack is ~27 kWh, a easy design with modest energy and no lively cooling, so ought to value below 1,600€. The motor and inverters are additionally modest energy (33 kW), so equally cheap. The Renault-Dongfeng badged “Fengshen EX1” model (identical automobile with the very same battery and motor) had a pre-sales-tax value of below €6,000 in China.”

What’s the value of the Dacia Spring in France? 18,400€… over 3 times the value. Even permitting a potential 2,000€ for airbags and security upgrades — after worldwide transport, 10% import tax, and 20% gross sales tax, that 6.000€ ought to translate to a French sale value of effectively below 12,000€, not a value of over 18,000€!

Briefly, it seems to be like European automobile patrons are being screwed-over on BEV pricing, while the European automakers are making report income. Producers are apparently refusing to compete with one another on providing reasonably priced BEVs (which factors to potential value collusion), and are leaning on European politicians to close out world competitors, to allow them to keep their report income — by overcharging European customers for the BEVs they do supply.

If BEV costs have been preserving tempo with the precise value reductions within the core applied sciences, BEVs would already be near parity with ICE pricing in most segments in France, simply as they’re in China. BEV share would even be maintaining with the pace of the transition seen in China, which — regardless of scoring behind France in BEV share in 2020 (6.3% vs 6.7%) — ended 2023 far forward (25% vs 16.8%).

Let me know within the feedback what you consider this entire state of affairs of overpriced BEVs, report income for European producers, even while the pace of the transition is much under the place it must be.

To complete this part on a constructive observe, February noticed diesel market share at a report low in France, at simply 7.2%, dropping from 11.7% YoY. Quantity was simply 10,221 items, from 14,717 items YoY.

Greatest Promoting BEVs

The Peugeot e-208 was as soon as once more the perfect promoting BEV in France, for a second consecutive month, with 4,132 items delivered in February. In runner up place was the Fiat 500e, with 1,990 items, with the Tesla Mannequin Y simply behind, with 1,982 items.

The Citroen e-C4 noticed a great bounce in quantity, to 1,034 items, effectively forward of its latest month-to-month common of some 330 items. This was sufficient to see the e-C4 climb to seventh, from fifteenth in January.

One other sturdy climber was the brand new Volvo EX30, which newest knowledge suggests debuted in January, with 307 items, and climbed strongly to 770 items, and tenth spot, in February.

The EX30, which is at present made in China, will likely be excluded from France’s eco-bonus incentive scheme (see latest dialogue) after March fifteenth, so is being delivered in a rush earlier than that date. We will anticipate its numbers to fall considerably after March. Volvo is planning to make the EX30 in Europe (in all probability Belgium) from 2025, to beat these boundaries.

Recall that a number of of the preferred BEV fashions will fall foul of the brand new eco-bonus guidelines after March fifteenth — basically, any mannequin which is made exterior of Europe is excluded. Fashions affected embrace the Dacia Spring,  Tesla Mannequin 3, Kia Niro, Kia EV6, BYD Atto 3, Volvo EX30, MG4 (plus all different MGs), Ford Mustang Mach-e, Fisker Ocean, Nissan Ariya, and Toyota BZ4X (amongst a number of others).

We will anticipate all these fashions to pull-forward deliveries forward of March fifteenth, and see a major drop in quantity from April onwards. Clearly it will imply that these BEVs nonetheless accessing the bonus will achieve in gross sales and rating, because the above common fashions are hamstrung within the competitors. The water is considerably muddied by new pricing methods from a lot of these dropping entry to the bonus. Let’s see how the mud settles in direction of the tip of Q2.

The brand new BMW iX2 made its French debut in February, with 99 items registered. The BYD Seal has additionally just lately debuted, with 38 preliminary items in January, and stepping as much as 202 items in February. For the reason that Seal is at present solely made in China , it received’t see a lot quantity after March fifteenth, until BYD is able to modify its pricing. A BYD European manufacturing facility is being deliberate.

Let’s now inspect the trailing 3 month rankings:

December knowledge was sparse, so we are able to solely compile a dependable high 12 rating. As ordinary, the Tesla Mannequin Y is within the high spot, on the power of 4,681 deliveries in December, and first rate volumes since.

Its older sibling, the Tesla Mannequin 3, is in second place, a better rating than ordinary, which is sensible provided that the European provide is generally made in Shanghai. It’s going to thus lose entry to the French eco-bonus after March fifteenth, and has been pulling-forward deliveries forward of time. The Mannequin Y, made within the Berlin-Brandenburg manufacturing facility, stays eligible for the bonus after March.

In third is the Peugeot e-208, following on from its high spot in the latest month-to-month rankings.

The MG4 and Dacia Spring are each making hay while the solar nonetheless shines, in 4th and fifth spots, and can possible fall again from April onwards, after dropping the bonus eligibility.

The remainder of the highest 12 are all acquainted faces, with no massive actions in comparison with the interval 3 months earlier.

Outlook

France’s GDP development stayed above water all through 2023, with consecutive quarterly YoY scores of 0.9%, 1.2%, 0.6%, and 0.7% (newest knowledge). This put France forward of many different European economies. Inflation cooled to 2.9% in February, from 3.1% in January, the bottom in over 2 years. Rates of interest stay flat at 4.5%. Manufacturing PMI improved to 47.1 factors in February, from 43.1 factors in January.

The months forward will see modifications in BEV gross sales because the eco-bonus will get withdrawn for lots of the hottest fashions. We should wait to see what impact this has on the general quantity of the BEV market. Hopefully these producers who’re capable of scale back their costs will accomplish that, with a view to preserve their foot within the French market.

Alternatively, if their BEV fashions are anyway provide constrained (relative to demand throughout Europe), they’ll presumably favour allocating items to different European markets the place they will nonetheless entry incentives, and thus larger margins. We’ll get a fuller image of how the market has modified by the tip of Q2.

What are your ideas on the French EV transition? Please bounce in to the dialogue within the feedback part under, and share your perspective.