Clear Vitality Canada is a clear vitality suppose tank on the Morris J. Wosk Centre for Dialogue at Simon Fraser College. By way of media briefs, we intention to offer helpful factual and contextual data associated to Canada’s clear vitality transition. Please use this as a useful resource, and tell us if there are any matters that you simply wish to see for future media briefs.
International renewable energy technology is rising at an unprecedented price, pushed by the beneficial economics of wind and photo voltaic together with vitality safety issues round oil and fuel (largely attributable to latest wars), and emissions targets. A lot in order that new evaluation suggests world emissions from electrical energy technology might peak this yr as a consequence of a surge in wind and solar energy.
Canada’s hydropower-rich grid is 84% non-emitting with variable renewables (basically wind and photo voltaic) at present making up 7% of the nation’s whole electrical energy technology. Nevertheless, the Canada Vitality Regulator initiatives that this may rise to between 33% and 37% of electrical energy technology in 2050 in a net-zero 2050. With research indicating that Canadian energy demand may double between now and 2050, the federal authorities not too long ago proposed the Clear Electrical energy Rules to assist make sure that Canada’s energy system stays each clear and reasonably priced within the years forward. Renewable energy, together with variable renewables, will clearly have a giant position to play in Canada’s vitality future, however its use has confronted criticism that’s usually based mostly on inaccurate or deceptive data.
The next temporary breaks down among the widespread misconceptions about the usage of variable renewable energy in Canada and world wide.
Fable 1: “Renewables can contribute solely a small share of grid electrical energy as a result of they solely work when the wind blows and the solar shines”
- It’s true that wind and photo voltaic are variable assets that present most energy to the grid when the solar shines or the wind blows. Nevertheless, options are accessible to enrich variable assets, from stronger grids and interconnections to demand-side measures (such because the sensible charging of electrical automobiles and industrial demand response), reasonably priced storage, and dispatchable energy provide. These choices can allow comparatively excessive shares of wind and photo voltaic on a grid.
- A have a look at different nations world wide gives loads of examples of present wind and photo voltaic shares which might be a lot larger than Canada’s right this moment, with some even larger than the 33% to 37% that the Canada Vitality Regulator initiatives for a Canadian net-zero future.
- Wind and photo voltaic accounted for 61% of electrical energy generated in Denmark in 2022. Different nations with comparatively excessive shares of wind and photo voltaic embrace Uruguay (36%), Eire (34%), Germany and the Netherlands (32% every), the U.Ok. (29%), Chile (28%), and Australia (26%).
- Regionally, the EU-wide common share of electrical energy generated from wind and photo voltaic in 2022 was 22%. In Could 2023, wind and photo voltaic produced extra electrical energy than fossil fuels within the European Union for the primary full month on report. Nearly a 3rd of the EU’s electrical energy that month was generated from wind and photo voltaic (31%), whereas fossil fuels generated a report low of 27%.
- The common within the G7 was 15%, simply above the world common of 12%.
- South of the border, the U.S. has a share of 15%, though with nice state-level variation. Over a 3rd of all U.S. states (18) generated greater than 20% of electrical energy from wind and photo voltaic in 2022. The U.S. states with the best shares have been Iowa (63%) and South Dakota (55%). Others with comparatively excessive shares embrace main states like California (34%) and Texas (26%).
- A 2022 evaluation of the potential so as to add variable renewables to Canada’s electrical energy system discovered that a mean renewables penetration price of 54% may very well be realized, with even larger shares attainable beneath sure measures.
Fable 2: “Renewables are costly, and the price of vitality storage required to help renewables is prohibitive”
- A latest Clear Vitality Canada report, A Renewables Powerhouse, discovered that electrical energy from wind and photo voltaic is already cost-competitive with pure fuel technology in Ontario and Alberta (the 2 provinces studied), with much more price reductions on the horizon.
- When Canada’s carbon value can be included, each wind and photo voltaic are considerably cheaper than pure fuel already right this moment.
- Analyses for the U.S. from Lazard and the Vitality Data Administration present comparable outcomes. Each discover wind and photo voltaic to be cost-competitive with pure gas-fired electrical energy within the U.S. even and not using a carbon value.
- That mentioned, decrease prices alone are solely a part of the equation. Wind and photo voltaic are variable assets, which means they supply most energy to the grid when the solar shines or the wind blows. As prices proceed to fall, there are a variety of methods to complement the variability of wind and photo voltaic, together with vitality storage and elevated transmission capability.
- Our latest report discovered that, even when the prices of battery storage are included, each wind and photo voltaic are cost-competitive in lots of eventualities within the two provinces studied.
- Once more, outcomes for the U.S. are comparable, the place estimates present that variable renewables plus storage could be cost-competitive with pure gas-fired electrical energy.
- As vitality storage prices proceed to fall, variable renewables are anticipated to turn out to be much more cost-competitive with electrical energy from pure fuel. For instance, evaluation from BloombergNEF exhibits a near-80% decline in lithium-ion battery costs during the last 10 years throughout purposes starting from automobiles to stationary storage. Wanting forward, the U.S. Nationwide Renewable Vitality Laboratory initiatives utility-scale lithium-ion battery storage prices to probably halve over this decade, with continued price declines by way of 2050.
- Aside from offering low-cost electrical energy, renewables can even assist the communities wherein they’re positioned. New evaluation discovered that some southern Alberta municipalities obtain a considerable quantity of tax revenues from wind and photo voltaic initiatives, some as excessive as 50%.
- Our latest report discovered that, even when the prices of battery storage are included, each wind and photo voltaic are cost-competitive in lots of eventualities within the two provinces studied.
Fable 3: “Electrical energy from renewables is just not clear when you think about the assets required to supply photo voltaic panels and wind generators”
- Research by among the world’s most respected vitality establishments have proven that the greenhouse fuel emissions of electrical energy technology from variable renewables like wind and photo voltaic are significantly decrease than energy from pure fuel and coal:
- The U.S. Nationwide Renewable Vitality Laboratory performed a complete evaluation of round 3,000 life-cycle evaluation research on utility-scale electrical energy technology from varied vitality sources. The Intergovernmental Panel on Local weather Change cited this work in a particular report on renewables, and NREL not too long ago up to date its evaluation. A full life-cycle evaluation covers all levels of electrical energy technology, from useful resource extraction and energy plant building to operation and ultimately decommissioning and recycling or disposal.
- The NREL evaluation confirmed that whole life-cycle greenhouse fuel emissions from photo voltaic, wind, and nuclear are significantly decrease and fewer variable than these from pure fuel and coal. Particularly, the median whole life-cycle emissions from pure fuel energy is nearly 40 instances that of wind and greater than 10 instances that of photo voltaic. Earlier evaluation research discovered comparable outcomes.
Fable 4: “Renewables aren’t clear while you account for the gear waste they generate at their finish of life”
- Analysis that particularly checked out waste from photo voltaic panels exhibits that 35 years of world projected cumulative photo voltaic panel waste is dwarfed by the waste generated by fossil gasoline vitality and different widespread waste streams.
- For instance, if there was no transition to renewable vitality sources, coal ash and oily sludge waste generated from fossil gasoline vitality can be 300 to 800 instances and a couple of to five instances bigger, respectively, than photo voltaic panel waste by 2050. In different phrases, waste from photo voltaic electrical energy is considerably decrease than that from fossil fuels.
- Though some 85% to 90% of the mass of a wind turbine and photo voltaic panel could be reused or recycled, most decommissioned photo voltaic modules and blade waste in Canada are at present directed to landfills or are being saved pending future recycling choices, in accordance with a 2021 report.
- Nevertheless, quite a few coverage instruments can be found to reduce waste technology and encourage circularity of supplies from renewables gear, together with focused end-of-life laws, prolonged producer duty, eco-design laws, labelling and certification, and binding and measurable restoration and recycling targets. Certainly, some provinces, like B.C. and Alberta, have already begun advancing their photo voltaic panel recycling efforts lately.
- Analysts anticipate rising vitality prices, improved recycling expertise, and authorities regulation to extend recycling charges. The truth is, the recycling marketplace for photo voltaic panels alone is projected to be price US$2.7 billion globally by 2030, up from solely US$170 million final yr.
Fable 5: “Renewables expertise is just not prepared”
- The Worldwide Vitality Company attests that photo voltaic and wind are “properly established and available” right this moment. The truth is, renewables are set to contribute 80% of recent energy capability worldwide between now and 2030 beneath present insurance policies, with photo voltaic alone accounting for greater than half.
- Photo voltaic deployment has seen distinctive development lately, with world put in capability poised to surpass that of coal by 2027. Earlier this yr, the Worldwide Vitality Company projected world spending on solar energy in 2023 to exceed US$380 billion, for the primary time surpassing worldwide funding in oil manufacturing (US$370 billion). On the present price, world development in photo voltaic technology is on monitor with what’s wanted from this expertise to realize net-zero emissions by 2050, in accordance with the Worldwide Vitality Company.
- Onshore wind is a “confirmed, mature expertise with an in depth world provide chain,” in accordance with the Worldwide Vitality Company. In the meantime, offshore wind is predicted to develop quickly within the coming years as deploying generators at sea takes benefit of stronger winds.
- The truth is, the fast deployment of photo voltaic and wind previously few years has exceeded expectations, pushed by vitality safety issues and new world insurance policies, resulting in vital upward revisions of the Worldwide Vitality Company’s renewable energy forecasts. The company’s newest world vitality outlook equally highlights how projections for photo voltaic and wind technology to 2030 have elevated considerably in successive editions of the outlook since 2019.
Fable 6: “Renewables may match elsewhere however aren’t suited to Canada”
- A 2021 examine analyzed the power of photo voltaic and wind to fulfill electrical energy demand in over 40 nations and ranked Canada second.
- Earlier evaluation equally discovered vital potential for variable renewables like wind and photo voltaic throughout Canada. Highlights embrace on-shore wind potential in Newfoundland and Labrador and Saskatchewan, off-shore wind potential in B.C. and Ontario, and photo voltaic potential in Ontario and the Prairies.
- Atlantic Canada is house to among the greatest wind energy assets on this planet, with a latest examine mentioning that “offshore wind may very well be for Atlantic Canada what oil was to Texas or hydro energy to Quebec.”
- Additionally in accordance with the federal authorities, elements of southern Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba have been proven to have excessive solar energy potential.
- The truth is, Canada’s hydro-dominated electrical energy community is well-suited to enrich the mixing of great shares of wind and photo voltaic. Evaluation from 2022 discovered that Canada may see variable renewables attain a penetration price of 54% throughout the nation on common, with even larger charges attainable when including demand-side measures.
- As well as, Canada has “large potential for pumped-storage hydropower,” with greater than 8,000 GW recognized at nearly 1,200 websites, in accordance to WaterPower Canada.
