Since 2014, many firms have utilized in California for testing self-driving automobiles. The checklist of firms which have obtained a allow can be utilized as a measure for the innovation course of related to autonomous car know-how. The graph beneath exhibits how the variety of firms lively in California has solely elevated steadily from 2014 to the third quarter of 2016. A steep improve follows in 2017. The slope softens within the first half of 2018.
In fact it could be untimely to conclude that we’re already seeing the start of the tip of the S-curve which is so typical for innovation processes. And the California AV permits can solely be seen as a proxy for the bigger distributed self-driving car innovation course of presently unfolding the world over.
Energetic California AV permits by month (Information from California DMV) Up to date: 2018-11-18 (you would possibly must reload your browser to see the newest model)
However neither the variety of California AV permits nor the variety of firms offering self-driving car options will develop indefinitely. The time will come the place the business strikes into the following section, the place the exploratory modes of growth can be changed by extra systematic, managerial approaches and the place commercialization would be the main focus. A shakeout is inevitable. Time could also be operating out for many who nonetheless wish to soar onto the self-driving automobile prepare…
Notes:
– 58 permits have been issued by the tip of June 2018; One allow has not been renewed (Uber), making it 57 lively permits.
Updates:
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-2018-11-18: By the tip of October 2018, the variety of lively permits elevated to 60.
– 2018-09-07: By the tip of August 2018, Mando America Company obtained a allow, rising the variety of lively permits to 56.
– 2018-08-07: By the tip of July 2018, 2 firms didn’t renew their permits (Wheego Electrical and Bauer’s Clever Transportation) lowering the variety of lively permits to 55.
